Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost several years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his skill to meet and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Putin consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.